Rozmowy o Ukrainie w Abu Zabi przynoszą postęp w sprawie więźniów, ale nie w sprawie pokoju

Justyna Gotkowska @jgotkowska

Not much has been achieved in Abu Dhabi, but the framing of the talks has nevertheless been harmful, particularly for the Europeans. The Russians have achieved their goal of opening a discussion about the post-war European security order, which Kushner and Witkoff were ready to embrace. 1. The U.S. – clearly Kushner and Witkoff, with Trump’s blessing – wants to bring about not only peace for peace’s sake, but also an opening for business deals with Russia. They probably want a credible excuse for opening a business track with Russia. After the midterms, securing business opportunities for family members and friends might be one of their goals. And here Europe might be an obstacle to remove – EU sanctions will prevent the launch of some envisaged U.S.-Russian business ventures, such as gas deliveries to Europe. It is probably beyond Kushner and Witkoff’s comprehension what Putin really wants. They do not understand Russian thinking or the implications of concessions to Moscow for European security. They have no understanding of Russia’s goals and policies towards NATO, the EU and within the OSCE, either now or in the past. Kushner during the press conference: “Something is clearly not working…”. They say they want to preserve existing institutions and make NATO stronger, at the same time as Russia wants to undermine them. It is good that Gen. Grynkewich took part in the talks, providing a link to the realities on the ground. And these realities include – according to the Polish Defence Minister – the Pentagon agreeing today to station troops permanently in Poland and not objecting to Poland acquiring land-based Tomahawk missiles. 2. The Europeans – are being drawn into a tricky game. Ukraine wants Europe on board in order to secure European backing in its difficult talks with the U.S. Europe wants to know what the U.S. is discussing with Russia regarding the end of the war and post-war Ukraine, and for all the right reasons. The problem is that both Russia and Kushner/Witkoff have just sprung a trap by opening up discussions on post-war European security with the Europeans. And this trap carries two major risks. First, it broadens the scope of the discourse. Once the topic has been opened and the Europeans have been drawn in, Russia and the U.S. will push Europe further towards engaging in these talks, with an unpredictable outcome. Second, Europe has the problem of not being a single entity, of having differing perspectives and representatives, some of whom – in the race to “represent Europe” – might be more willing to go beyond previously agreed common positions. All in all, I hope there is enough sense within the E4, EU and NATO to understand where this is heading, as Russia is unlikely to shift its positions.

Cytowany wpis ↗

Justyna Gotkowska @jgotkowska

Not much has been achieved in Abu Dhabi, but the framing of the talks has nevertheless been harmful, particularly for the Europeans. The Russians have achieved their goal of opening a discussion about the post-war European security order, which Kushner and Witkoff were ready to embrace. 1. The U.S. – clearly Kushner and Witkoff, with Trump’s blessing – wants to bring about not only peace for peace’s sake, but also an opening for business deals with Russia. They probably want a credible excuse for opening a business track with Russia. After the midterms, securing business opportunities for family members and friends might be one of their goals. And here Europe might be an obstacle to remove – EU sanctions will prevent the launch of some envisaged U.S.-Russian business ventures, such as gas deliveries to Europe. It is probably beyond Kushner and Witkoff’s comprehension what Putin really wants. They do not understand Russian thinking or the implications of concessions to Moscow for European security. They have no understanding of Russia’s goals and policies towards NATO, the EU and within the OSCE, either now or in the past. Kushner during the press conference: “Something is clearly not working…”. They say they want to preserve existing institutions and make NATO stronger, at the same time as Russia wants to undermine them. It is good that Gen. Grynkewich took part in the talks, providing a link to the realities on the ground. And these realities include – according to the Polish Defence Minister – the Pentagon agreeing today to station troops permanently in Poland and not objecting to Poland acquiring land-based Tomahawk missiles. 2. The Europeans – are being drawn into a tricky game. Ukraine wants Europe on board in order to secure European backing in its difficult talks with the U.S. Europe wants to know what the U.S. is discussing with Russia regarding the end of the war and post-war Ukraine, and for all the right reasons. The problem is that both Russia and Kushner/Witkoff have just sprung a trap by opening up discussions on post-war European security with the Europeans. And this trap carries two major risks. First, it broadens the scope of the discourse. Once the topic has been opened and the Europeans have been drawn in, Russia and the U.S. will push Europe further towards engaging in these talks, with an unpredictable outcome. Second, Europe has the problem of not being a single entity, of having differing perspectives and representatives, some of whom – in the race to “represent Europe” – might be more willing to go beyond previously agreed common positions. All in all, I hope there is enough sense within the E4, EU and NATO to understand where this is heading, as Russia is unlikely to shift its positions.

Cytowany wpis ↗